BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) — Monday will be the first day of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra, with a majority of the activity along the crests.

High resolution models, most notably the HRRR, are also showing a slight chance of showers and elevated thunderstorms moving into the Mariposa foothills and Merced County overnight into early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures through mid-week will remain in the triple digits throughout the valley, desert, and foothills. Ensembles are not showing any anomalously strong ridging. So while temperatures will be slightly above average, they will not out of the ordinary for this time of year.

The latest NBM blended guidance shows a high probability (>80%) of at least 100 degrees or greater across much of the valley and Sierra foothills. But, cloud cover from any showers or thunderstorms each day could limit heating.

Smoke from the Oak Fire in Mariposa County will continue to affect much of the district, especially north of Kern County.

From Thursday through the end of the seven-day forecast period, ensembles are indicating that high pressure will remain centered over the central Great Basin with southeasterly flow aloft over the central California interior.

We’ll continue to see daily chances of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra with triple-digit heat continuing over the lower elevations.