BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) — A poll released Friday finds Republican David Valadao leading incumbent Democrat TJ Cox by 11 points in the race for the 21st Congressional District.
Conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a super PAC for Republican House candidates, the poll found Valadao with 49 percent support compared to Cox with 38 percent support. Among the 400 likely voters surveyed, nine percent said they are undecided.
The poll also asked about each of the candidate’s favorability. 48 percent of those surveyed said they have a favorable view of Valadao while 29 percent do not. 41 percent said they have a favorable view of Cox, while 38 percent do not.
The 21st Congressional district represents parts of Bakersfield, Arvin to the south, and parts of Fresno County to the north. This is the same race flooding the airwaves with campaign ads with each side accusing the other of wrongdoing.
Cox defeated Valadao in 2018 by a margin of 862 votes, and Hillary Clinton won this district by double digits in 2016 during her campaign for president. The same year, Valadao won the district by more than 13 percent. Noting the district’s competitive back-and-forth elections, the non-partisan Cook Political Report newsletter has labeled this race as a “toss-up” in 2020. “Either party has a good chance of winning,” according to the newsletter’s website.
TJ Cox for Congress Campaign Manager Amanda Sands issued the following statement following the poll’s release: “The central valley is going to reject Donald Trump’s yes man David Valadao yet again. You can bet on it.”
The Valadao campaign had no comment.