Not only did the under come though in
Super Bowl XLIV, as everyone in the free world knows by now, the underdog New
Orleans Saints also prevailed with an outright victory.
The highest-ever over/under total in Super Bowl history at 56.5 was never in
doubt, as the first-half ended with the Colts leading 10-6. The two clubs
compiled 32 points in the final 30 minutes, but 15 of those came with less than
six minutes remaining.
More surprising than the actual final score was how Indianapolis was the heavy
six-point favorite throughout most of the two weeks. The line dropped down to
4.5 points in the final days prior to Sunday, and those folks who sent it in on
the underdog Saints came away with the big score.
All the late money poured in on New Orleans primarily due to two factors.
First, the status of Dwight Freeney was up in the air throughout the final
week, and second, the Colts should never have been favored by six points to
begin with. Remember, the Steelers were giving 6.5 points to a 9-7 Cardinals
squad the previous year, and not many folks gave Arizona a chance.
The reason the Colts were favored by so many points had everything to do with
how the two clubs performed in the conference championship games. Indianapolis
plowed through the Jets in the second half to win, 30-17, while the Saints were
outgained by over 200 yards in their overtime triumph over the Vikings.
If this game had been played in week 12 or 13, Indianapolis would have been
favored by just a field goal, or even less.
HOW THE GAME WAS WON
The key statistic, in my mind, coming into the Super Bowl was how poorly the
Colts defended the pass. They allowed opposing quarterbacks to nail 64% of
their throws, good for 26th best in the league, and there is no question Drew
Brees took advantage of that by completing 82% of his tosses on Sunday.
The Super Bowl MVP enjoyed a phenomenal second half, going 16-of-17 with a pair
of touchdowns leading the Saints to scores on all three possessions in the
final 30 minutes. It was a complete departure for the Colts defense from the
prior two postseason performances, in which Baltimore and New York were shut
out on a combined 12 second-half drives.
Still, the Saints did not win this game solely on the arm of Drew Brees. Head
coach Sean Payton, kicker Garrett Hartley and cornerback Tracy Porter were
important cogs in the 14-point victory.
The onside kick that began the second-half might very well be the single
gutsiest call ever in Super Bowl history, and the aggressive nature that Payton
displayed all game long was critical to his team's success.
Hartley chipped in with 11 points on three 40-plus yard field goals and two
extra points, out-dueling Matt Stover in almost all prop bets, while Porter
sealed the game with a 74-yard interception return when the Colts were driving
to tie the score at 24-24.
In fact, the whole Saints defense should be rewarded with the game ball, as the
unit held Indianapolis to 17 total points. Keep in mind, only one team kept the
Colts from scoring fewer points (in games they tried to win) this season, and
that was Jacksonville all the way back in Week 1.
BIG BETS THAT CAME THROUGH
Besides the Saints plus the points and the under, there were plenty of wagers
that could have ballooned one's bankroll.
Taking New Orleans to win the game, along with the Colts to lead at halftime,
was a tremendous bet which paid out at 8-1 odds. Another gamble that someone
could have made was to wager "NO" that either team would score in the first
7:30 minutes. All it took to cash out at a very generous +215 was one single
second, as Matt Stover banged home a 38-yard field goal at the 7:29 mark of the
first quarter.
Speaking of that play, a field goal has now been the first score in eight of
the last 12 Super Bowls. Given those numbers, it's amazing that the touchdown
was so heavily favored at -170.
Another huge moment for gamblers came on the two-point conversion, especially
for those folks who wagered "YES" at +400 on a successful attempt. It was
probably a double hit for those gamblers since they most likely took the 2-1
odds that there would be a two-point try to begin with.
Congratulations also goes out to those players who gambled on a low-scoring
game, at least on the Colts side, as the 17-point total paid out a hefty 30-1.
The 31 points scored by the Saints came in surprisingly low at 10-1. Only a 27-
point total was lower at 8-1.
One bet that had gamblers waiting with bated breath was "which quarterback
would throw more touchdown passes?" Heading into the final four minutes, Drew
Brees held a 2-to-1 edge, but Peyton Manning would get multiple chances to tie.
I'm sure everyone who wagered on Brees at +145 breathed a deep sigh of relief
when Tracy Porter intercepted Manning late in the game, but the Colts still had
one more chance to strike. The final nail in the coffin came when Reggie Wayne
dropped the ball at the goal line on a fourth-down play with less than one
minute remaining.
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